As U.S.-backed negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in Geneva ended without a breakthrough, Kyiv made gains on the battlefield, recapturing territory at its fastest pace in years through localized counterattacks along the southeastern front.
The advances come as analysts point to disruptions in Russian battlefield communications and shifting operational dynamics, developments that could strengthen Ukraine’s leverage even as talks remain stalled.
Ukrainian forces retook about 78 square miles over five days, according to a report by Agence France-Presse based on an analysis of the Institute for the Study of War battlefield mapping. The gains represent Kyiv’s most rapid territorial advances since its 2023 counteroffensive in the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions.
Retired Air Force Lt. Gen. Richard Newton said Ukraine’s battlefield performance should not be underestimated. “As this war grinds on, the world too often forgets that the Ukrainians’ determination, innovation, and moral clarity are force multipliers. Their capabilities to defend against a larger and better-resourced enemy should never be counted out. There are growing signals that Russia’s supposed invincibility is no longer a good bet, particularly as President Trump applies greater pressure on the Kremlin’s client states.”
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The fighting has centered east of Zaporizhzhia, where Russian forces have steadily advanced since mid-2025. Open-source battlefield monitoring and mapping indicate Ukrainian troops pushed forward around Huliaipole and nearby settlements, though analysts caution the front remains fluid, and some areas are not fully secured, The Telegraph reported.
The Institute for the Study of War assessed in mid-February that the counterattacks appear to be exploiting disruptions in Russian command-and-control. ISW said Ukrainian forces are likely leveraging limits affecting Russian battlefield communications, including reported restrictions tied to the use of Starlink satellite terminals and messaging platforms cited in open-source reporting.
Analysts say reduced connectivity can create short windows for Ukrainian units to move through contested zones that are typically dominated by drone surveillance and electronic warfare. ISW and other observers emphasize that such opportunities are temporary and do not signal a broader collapse in Russian defenses.
The evolving fight is also shaped by the growing role of drones. In a Feb. 10 special report, ISW said Russia’s expanding use of first-person-view drones reflects a campaign to “weaponize and institutionalize intentional civilian harm as a purposeful tool of war,” warning the tactic is becoming embedded in operational doctrine and could influence future conflicts.
Despite the recent gains, analysts caution against viewing the developments as a decisive shift in the war. Newton argued that sustained Western military support remains essential. “Putin only responds to force, therefore the U.S. and Europe should continue to provide Ukraine with defensive and offensive capabilities including land-based Tomahawk cruise missiles capable of reaching deep inside Russia.”
Retired Vice Adm. Robert S. Harward said battlefield gains are increasingly tied to diplomacy. “Both sides are clearly trying to use battlefield advances to shape their positions at the negotiating table. It may be a real sign that neither of the two parties are willing to get to a deal yet, despite President Zelenskyy’s good faith offer to hold elections if there is a ceasefire.”
“If there is a lasting and fair diplomatic deal to be achieved, the Trump Administration is the most capable team to deliver it as the U.S. applies increasing pressure on Venezuela, Iran, and Putin’s few remaining friends,” he said.
Nearly two years after Ukraine’s last major offensive stalled, the war remains defined by incremental territorial changes rather than sweeping breakthroughs. Both sides continue to rely heavily on drones, artillery and electronic warfare, with front lines shifting village by village.
“As U.S.-led negotiations continue, it is critical we ramp up pressure on Putin to end this war on terms that ensure he is put back in his corner once and for all,” Newton said.
