Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce haven’t confirmed a single wedding detail, but that hasn’t stopped bettors from putting millions on what could be the biggest celebrity ceremony in years.
With speculation reaching a frenzy, prediction markets are revealing where gamblers think the couple will say, “I do,” who will score an invite — and the one outcome they’re betting almost certainly won’t happen.
While bettors are divided over where the couple will marry and who will make the guest list, there’s one prediction with overwhelming consensus: Swift is almost certainly not pregnant.
Polymarket bettors have poured more than $2 million into the market, and only 2% believe she’s already expecting.
While bettors appear nearly unanimous when it comes to the possibility of Swift being pregnant, the money doesn’t stop there.
An additional $2 million has been wagered on Kalshi over where Swift and Kelce will tie the knot, with New York emerging as the overwhelming favorite. Roughly 75% of bettors expect the Empire State to host the ceremony, and more than half of those predict the couple will exchange vows at Madison Square Garden, according to Vanity Fair.
Twenty-five percent of bettors believe Swift and Kelce will get married at her home in Rhode Island.
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While people continue to place their bets, an entertainment industry executive confirmed to The New York Times that a multi-day event was set to take over Madison Square Garden, which was rented by Swift, beginning July 2. The festivities will reportedly kick off with an intimate gathering of about 100 people before a much larger celebration for roughly 1,000 guests on July 3.
The July 3 celebration may include stage performances, according to the outlet’s sources.
Two NYPD officers patrolling Madison Square Garden on June 24 confirmed to Variety that they had been warned about a possible influx of Swift fans and paparazzi during the alleged wedding weekend.
The speculation doesn’t end at the altar. Bettors are also putting money on who will land coveted spots in the wedding party.
Abigail Anderson, Swift’s best friend since high school, leads the bridesmaid predictions, with 92% of bettors expecting she’ll be part of the bridal party. Ashley Avignone, Gigi Hadid, Este Haim and Kylie Kelce also rank among the favorites. On Kelce’s side, brother Jason Kelce, Patrick Mahomes and Swift’s younger brother, Austin, are widely expected to make the cut.
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Kalshi users are also trying to predict who will – and won’t – receive one of the year’s hottest invitations.
An overwhelming majority of users don’t believe Blake Lively received an invite. Roughly three-quarters of bettors believe the actress didn’t make the guest list following the legal drama surrounding Justin Baldoni’s lawsuit, which pulled Swift into the dispute through unsealed text messages.
Harry Styles also isn’t expected to attend, despite his engagement to Swift’s longtime friend Zoë Kravitz.
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As for those expected to make the cut, longtime friend and producer Jack Antonoff tops the list, followed by Patrick and Brittany Mahomes, Selena Gomez and fiancé Benny Blanco, the Haim sisters and fellow pop stars Sabrina Carpenter and Gracie Abrams.
Neither Swift nor Kelce has publicly commented on the latest wedding rumors, but that hasn’t stopped fans from scrutinizing every potential clue.
